Observations on Wake County Population Trends
This week we took a look at population trends among Wake County municipalities, as well as Durham. Send us an email if you have additional thoughts to share.
With respect to this data, here are a few observations:
Wake County’s population has grown rapidly since 1990, but the majority of growth has shifted over time among the various municipalities within the County.
Raleigh’s population growth is slowing while growth within most other Wake municipalities remains quite high.
Raleigh’s population growth between 2010 and 2022 (72,695) accounted for 27.5% of the total municipal population growth in Wake County (263,436). All other municipalities combined population growth (190,741) accounted for 72.5% of the total over the same period of time.
Raleigh’s slowing population growth corresponds to the slow-down in residential building permits that began in 2008 following the Great Recession, particularly single-family detached homes, townhomes and condominiums.
Unlike most Wake municipalities, Durham’s population growth remained steady since 1990. This may be due in part to the lack of municipalities within Durham County.
Growth rates of municipalities closest to Raleigh, while generally higher, are also showing signs of slowing from historic highs.
Population growth rates of municipalities furthest from Raleigh are accelerating.
Here are some potential implications if Raleigh does not find ways to accommodate more future residents:
Traffic congestion will worsen across the region due to expanding suburban sprawl unless Raleigh can find more effective ways to accommodate a higher percentage of the growth occurring in Wake County.
Raleigh’s return on its transit investments will suffer because there won’t be sufficient residential density to build-out frequent, predictable service.
Raleigh might become an “enclave of the wealthy” because public employees like police, fire, teachers, as well as most service industry employees, won’t be able to buy or rent homes within Raleigh (think of San Francisco, Seattle, Boston and Portland).
Commute times for many in the region will become unreasonably long. Long commute times combined with work from home opportunities will make it easier for employees to live further away from job locations.
Even worse, if housing costs continue to rise rapidly and far fewer people can afford to live in Raleigh, companies may decide to locate/relocate businesses to outlying municipalities and/or to RTP.
Office relocations may accelerate as the need for large office spaces declines as employees take advantage of work from home opportunities.
Without income and racial diversity, Raleigh will see fewer small businesses starts.
Raleigh’s economy may stagnate in the absence of a vibrant small business community, robust economic development and continued population growth.
Without a growing population and a dynamic economy, real estate taxes and utility fees will need to increase at faster rates. At the same time, sales tax revenue will suffer.
With a shrinking tax base, maintaining public infrastructure like roads and water/sewer lines will be more challenging. Public amenities like the performing arts center, convention center, the PNC Arena, community centers and greenways will deteriorate because of deferred maintenance.
Economic stagnation will also reduce Raleigh’s ability to build new public amenities like greenways and community centers.
It will also make attracting public employees like police and firefighters more difficult as future City budgets face increasing fiscal pressure.
While some of this may seem like farfetched speculation, a dynamic economy, affordable housing opportunities and excellent public amenities/infrastructure are the primary ingredients of a successful city. However, “past performance is not an indicator of future results.” Raleigh cannot hope to remain one of the most attractive places in the Country to live, work and play by simply maintaining the status quo. We must cultivate a more dynamic civic culture and political leaders that embrace change and seek to constantly innovate.
We are compiling similar data for the counties surrounding Wake County to continue evaluating population trends and potential spillover effects from Wake County’s rapid growth. Stay tuned for future posts.