Raleigh is Growing up: Literally, Figuratively and Politically
City Council’s first meeting of the new year started like so many in recent years, with defenders of the status quo trying to stand in the way of Council’s effort to ensure the livability and fiscal health of the City by accommodating responsible growth. Historically, very few members of the public came out to support controversial rezoning cases. More often, defenders of the status quo showed up in force to oppose rezoning cases where developers sought to add height and/or density to their properties.
However, groups like RaleighForward, WakeUp Wake County and CityBuilder began collaborating to help provide objective data, factual information and programming that informs residents and generates support for sustainable land use policies. Starting in 2024, this collaboration started showing results. More residents showed up to support controversial zoning cases. One of the first times this occurred was Council’s approval of the New Bern Avenue BRT corridor upzoning of nearly 725 acres of land (Z-92-22). There were approximately 30 supporters and nearly the same number of opponents. That display of support contributed to Council’s approval of the case. Click here for links to the meeting agenda.
More recently, supporters turned out in support of a mixed-use rezoning with up to 30-story buildings near the intersection of Peace Street and West Street (Z-12-25). Click here for the agenda materials and link to the video. Staff determined that the request was consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and Planning Commission unanimously voted in support of the case as well. Council approved that case by a 6-2 vote without sending it to committee or holding the case over for further deliberation. Several neighbors near the rezoned property recently sued the City seeking to overturn the rezoning approval. Overturning a legislative decision like a rezoning is quite difficult and the neighborhood likely faces overwhelming odds.
On January 6, 2025, residents again spoke in favor of adding additional height of up to 37-stories at North Hills. While Council continued the case until January 20 (see Council agenda items below), the public is unlikely to have the opportunity to speak again during the meeting since both opponents and proponents used their allotted time. No one knows what will ultimately happen until Council takes a final vote on Tuesday, January 20, but staff found the rezoning request consistent with the Comprehensive Plan and the Planning Commission voted 7-1 in favor of the case. After holding the case at the table, the developer added conditions related to affordable housing and restricted vehicular access onto Rowan Street.
What does all this mean? Maybe because so many newer, younger residents are struggling to find diverse, affordable housing choices near downtown and other mixed-use centers across the City, they are starting to show up in sufficient numbers to neutralize the political potency of the older, wealthier defenders of the status quo? Maybe the new collaborative model our organizations are building is starting to shift the narrative?
Regardless of why, shifting the public discourse in favor of higher density, mixed-use development is critical. Why? Because it’s more fiscally sustainable than the sprawling development pattern supercharged over the last 30 years by exclusionary zoning. Compact, mixed-use development is more equitable and tax efficient. But don’t take our word for it, here is some of the research RaleighForward has included in newsletters over the last year:
Cities across the U.S. are wrestling with how to grow without breaking their budgets. A growing body of research shows that compact, mixed-use development is fiscally more sustainable than low-density suburban development. Below is a quick roundup of five influential studies, followed by a look at what they mean for Raleigh.
Research Highlights:
1. Carruthers & Ulfarsson (2003) – Urban Sprawl and Public Service Costs
Analyzing 283 U.S. metropolitan counties over a decade, this study found that as urbanized land spreads out, local governments face higher per-capita costs for infrastructure and services. Compact areas reduce duplication and network miles.
Takeaway: Density helps cities deliver services more efficiently.
2. Burchell et al. (2002) – Costs of Sprawl: 2000 (Transportation Research Board)
This national report modeled infrastructure needs under sprawl vs. compact growth. It found sprawl requires more roads, water, and sewer lines, driving up both upfront capital and ongoing maintenance costs.
Takeaway: Compact growth reduces long-term infrastructure liabilities.
3. Smart Growth America (2013) – Building Better Budgets
Looking at 17 case studies nationwide, this report quantified the fiscal impacts of development patterns. Compact development delivered:
38% lower upfront infrastructure costs
10% lower ongoing service costs
10x higher tax revenue per acre than conventional suburban patterns.
Takeaway: Density is not just cheaper. It’s more revenue-positive.
4. Mattson (2021) – Density and Municipal Spending
Using U.S. city finance data, this study showed that higher population-weighted density correlates with lower per-capita spending on services like fire, streets, parks, sewer, solid waste, and water. Only policing showed slightly higher costs in denser places.
Takeaway: Most city services get cheaper per person as density rises.
5. Carruthers & Ulfarsson (2008) – Smart Growth and Public Finance
Applying advanced spatial models across the U.S., the authors confirmed that denser, mixed-use development patterns are consistently associated with lower public expenditures per resident.
Takeaway: dense, mixed-use development is not just about livability, it’s also about fiscal health.
What This Means for Raleigh
Raleigh has been one of the fastest-growing cities in the Southeast. The research above has several clear implications:
Infrastructure Cost Avoidance: Extending roads, water, and sewer to single-family subdivisions is expensive. The “Costs of Sprawl” report suggests Raleigh could avoid tens of millions in future obligations by encouraging growth inside existing service areas rather than at the edges.
Revenue Productivity: Smart Growth America’s findings imply that denser development downtown, along transit corridors, and in mixed-use centers yields much higher property tax per acre. For Raleigh, that means more revenue to support parks, greenways and services without raising tax rates.
Operational Efficiency: Mattson’s evidence indicates Raleigh’s service delivery (fire, sanitation, utilities) becomes cheaper per resident as density increases. This matters as the city faces budget pressures and rising service demands.
Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability: Both Carruthers & Ulfarsson papers show that exclusionary zoning that perpetuates suburban development creates a structural fiscal imbalance where costs rise faster than revenues. For a high-growth city like Raleigh, avoiding that imbalance is critical to maintaining affordability and quality of life.
Bottom Line for Raleigh
Dense, compact mixed-use development is not just a planning preference. It’s a fiscal strategy. Raleigh can save money, reduce future liabilities, and strengthen its tax base by channeling growth into walkable neighborhoods, transit corridors, and mixed-use centers rather than low-density development perpetuated by the legacy of exclusionary zoning.