September 14, 2025 Newsletter
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Save the Date: Annual Reception with WakeUP Wake County on December 4th
Featuring Keynote Speaker Dr. Jenny Schuetz, a prolific writer on housing markets and author of the book, Fixer Upper: How to Repair America’s Broken Housing Systems.
Continuing the Discussion About Why Density Matters for Raleigh’s Fiscal Future
Cities across the U.S. are wrestling with how to grow without breaking their budgets. A growing body of research shows that compact, mixed-use development is fiscally more sustainable than low-density suburban development. Below is a quick roundup of five influential studies, followed by a look at what they mean for Raleigh.
Research Highlights
1. Carruthers & Ulfarsson (2003) – Urban Sprawl and Public Service Costs
Analyzing 283 U.S. metropolitan counties over a decade, this study found that as urbanized land spreads out, local governments face higher per-capita costs for infrastructure and services. Compact areas reduce duplication and network miles.
—> Takeaway: Density helps cities deliver services more efficiently.
2. Burchell et al. (2002) – Costs of Sprawl: 2000 (Transportation Research Board)
This national report modeled infrastructure needs under sprawl vs. compact growth. It found sprawl requires more roads, water, and sewer lines, driving up both upfront capital and ongoing maintenance costs.
—> Takeaway: Compact growth reduces long-term infrastructure liabilities.
3. Smart Growth America (2013) – Building Better Budgets
Looking at 17 case studies nationwide, this report quantified the fiscal impacts of development patterns. Compact development delivered:
38% lower upfront infrastructure costs
10% lower ongoing service costs
10x higher tax revenue per acre than conventional suburban patterns.
—> Takeaway: Density is not just cheaper. It’s more revenue-positive.
4. Mattson (2021) – Density and Municipal Spending
Using U.S. city finance data, this study showed that higher population-weighted density correlates with lower per-capita spending on services like fire, streets, parks, sewer, solid waste, and water. Only policing showed slightly higher costs in denser places.
—> Takeaway: Most city services get cheaper per person as density rises.
5. Carruthers & Ulfarsson (2008) – Smart Growth and Public Finance
Applying advanced spatial models across the U.S., the authors confirmed that denser, mixed-use development patterns are consistently associated with lower public expenditures per resident.
—> Takeaway: dense, mixed-use development is not just about livability, it’s also about fiscal health.
What This Means for Raleigh
Raleigh has been one of the fastest-growing cities in the Southeast. The research above has several clear implications:
Infrastructure Cost Avoidance: Extending roads, water, and sewer to single-family subdivisions is expensive. The “Costs of Sprawl” report suggests Raleigh could avoid tens of millions in future obligations by encouraging growth inside existing service areas rather than at the edges.
Revenue Productivity: Smart Growth America’s findings imply that denser development downtown, along transit corridors, and in mixed-use centers yields much higher property tax per acre. For Raleigh, that means more revenue to support parks, greenways and services without raising tax rates.
Operational Efficiency: Mattson’s evidence indicates Raleigh’s service delivery (fire, sanitation, utilities) becomes cheaper per resident as density increases. This matters as the city faces budget pressures and rising service demands.
Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability: Both Carruthers & Ulfarsson papers show that exclusionary zoning that perpetuates suburban development creates a structural fiscal imbalance where costs rise faster than revenues. For a high-growth city like Raleigh, avoiding that imbalance is critical to maintaining affordability and quality of life.
Bottom Line for Raleigh
Dense, compact mixed-use development is not just a planning preference. It’s a fiscal strategy. Raleigh can save money, reduce future liabilities, and strengthen its tax base by channeling growth into walkable neighborhoods, transit corridors, and mixed-use centers rather than low-density development perpetuated by the legacy of exclusionary zoning.
Articles and Resources of interest:
Research shows that expanding rental housing supply (particularly through large corporate landlords) can reduce segregation by enabling lower-income, non-White renters access to suburban neighborhoods. However, some current residents move out, viewing renters negatively. Large landlords gain efficiencies by clustering property acquisitions and converting owner-occupied homes. Read the research here.
Revolving loan funds are one of the government’s most effective tools to turn a one-time investment into a lasting source of financing for projects and sectors the private market deems insufficiently profitable, but which deliver needed public benefit. The State, along with Wake County, Raleigh and the private sector must work together to establish a robust revolving loan fund for affordable housing-
Controversial bill that adds dense housing to transit stops passed by California Assembly: The California Assembly passed SB 79 on Thursday, a housing bill that overrides local zoning laws to expand high-density housing near public transit hubs. Read the story here.
Housing costs squeeze owners and renters alike, outpacing inflation. The median increases in rent payments and homeowner costs outpaced inflation, according to new Census bureau data on the U.S. housing market.
As the nation ages, elected officials must start to find ways to ensure more people can age in place. Read more from Pew.
Where rents are dropping fastest around the Country, via House of Leon.
‘Can you Print a House?’ God, Robots and the Housing Crisis. The New York Times reports.
10 Tiny Homes: Fitting into a small home means clever transformations, custom storage solutions, and often, bright pops of color. These homes do it all, via the New York Times.
Has the Atlanta Beltline helped or hindered the effort to re-connect historically marginalized communities and neighborhoods? Also via the New York Times.
Federal legislation filed recently is designed to help faith-based organizations and institutions of higher education unlock the promise of their existing land holdings by transforming underused property into much-needed affordable housing. Read more here.
From the Data Department:
Wake County median real estate value increases by $24,750 to $484,750, per the Wake County Register of Deeds office. You can see a simple chart of that monthly data since January 2020 below:
Items of Interest in the Week Ahead:
Raleigh City Council will meet September 16, 2025. Here are some items of interest from Council’s Agenda.
Raleigh adopted a Tax Increment Grant program to encourage more urban, dense redevelopment. However, the policy has not been used since adoption in 2021. During Council’s 11:30 work session, staff will review the program and offer potential revisions designed to increase the likelihood that it will be utilized in the future. For more information, click here.
The second item on the work session agenda is a staff presentation on the City’s annexation policy. For the agenda material, click here.
During the regular meeting Council will consider setting the public hearing for the 30-story rezoning (Z-12-25) for property located at West and Peace. Click herefor backup.
Other items of interest: